A few days ago we talked about an interesting betting statistic that I found in one of the betting forums I regularly read. It’s about what happens after the visiting team in a football match succeed to score in the [...]
While browsing in one of my favorite betting forums on the internet I came across a very interesting statistics that may be useful to those who bet in-play on football matches. The statistics cover matches in which the away team [...]
Chelsea’s domineering display against Galatasaray on Tuesday night proved Jose Mourinho’s men are the real deal in the UEFA Champions League. Relentless pressure in midfield, clever counter-attacks and clinical finishing all played out in front of a yet another stingy [...]
April 26th, 2014 Liverpool vs Chelsea predictions and betting tips for Sunday, 27th April in the Premier League, free Liverpool v Chelsea tips this weekend.
Liverpool could virtually seal their first League title since the black and white days of 1990 with a victory over Chelsea on Sunday afternoon and sadly I think they will do so.
Their price has collapsed to best priced 7/10 with Coral since Jose has threatened that he will field a weakened side as he has an eye on the all-important second last clash with Atlético. Should he carry out his spineless promise and they lose, then hopefully the blues will suffer the same fate and get dumped out of Europe as well.
Given the odds on price for the Liverpool win I was looking at the Suarez/Liverpool win price but given the fact he doesn’t score against any decent teams that is overlooked in favour of a 9/2 betting tip in the same market. Raheem Shaquille Sterling has been playing well in recent weeks scoring four goals in his last eight matches and scaring teams with his fast direct approach. Given the injuries in Chelsea’s defence and their less than mobile midfield he will cause problems and get in many goals scoring positions. He isn’t afraid to shoot and with 77 year old Mark Schwarzer in goal he can easily get a goal. At 9/2 with Ladbrokes for Sterling to score and Liverpool to win that’s the first Liverpool v Chelsea betting prediction.
Sticking with Sterling, of the four goals he has scored, two have been the first of the game, Bet365 go 9/1 for this to happen. We’ll back him e/w as they pay unlimited places should he score but not bag the first.
Finally we opt for a bet which has won 11 times out of the last 17 matches at Anfield and that is for a Liverpool win with over 2.5 Goals. Given the above ratio it’s somewhat surprising that this is priced up at 27/20 with Ladbrokes.
April 22nd, 2014 Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea predictions and betting tips for tonight’s Champions League semi-final first leg clash.
Both teams have probably surprised themselves by getting to the Champions League semi-final but now they are here they have a fantastic chance of appearing in the final.
In the Atletico Madrid v Chelsea betting odds for the first leg tonight, Atletico are 9/10 with Ladbrokes to win, the draw is 5/2 at Bet365 and Chelsea are 4/1 to win with Coral.
When looking at tonight’s betting tips the first thing to note is that it is expected to be a close match and Mourinho is likely to go to Spain to keep it tight at the back and try and pinch an away goal on the counter attack. Under 2.5 goals looks the best bet of the match but it is only 11/20 so that’s not enough value to offer as a football tip.
Atletico Madrid’s last five matches have seen two goals or less and away from home three of Chelsea’s last four have ended in a 1-0 scoreline, with four of Atletico Madrid’s last five at home ending in a 1-0 home win. A 1-0 Atletico Madrid win tonight is priced at 5/1 with William Hill.
Given that we expect a cagey first period a bet on the score to be 0-0 at half-time might be worth a punt and that can be found at 6/4 with William Hill.
For a first goalscorer tip in tonight’s Champions League match Diego Costa is the obvious choice for Atletico Madrid and he has already scored seven goals in six matches this season. Diego Costa to score first is our next football betting tip at 9/2 with William Hill.
April 21st, 2014 
A few days ago we talked about an interesting betting statistic that I found in one of the betting forums I regularly read. It’s about what happens after the visiting team in a football match succeed to score in the first five minutes of the match.
So far we have discussed such matches from the English Premier League and Bundesliga in Germany.
However, if we look at the matches in France, we can see that the statistics show that this is the league in which it is the least possible for the home team to recover and reach victory after receiving an early goal. This means that if you see a match where the guests lead up within the very first minutes you can safely bet in-play in their favor. Most likely it will be a successful bet.
Of course, you need at first to carefully analyze the proposed by the bookmakers betting odds as it is determining whether your bet will be justified or not.
For the other two leagues and especially the Spanish Primera Division can be said that they are far less predictable and more difficult than the others. However, in both championships most probably such a match will end with results like 1-2 and 0:2.
Something else that can be seen from these data is that in Italy the home team has most chances to equalize almost immediately. This can be used if you decide to bet on which team will score the next goal of the match.
Of course, it’s just a betting statistic and we all could make different conclusions from it. However, it should be carefully analyzed and probably implemented in different ways, according to the way of betting a player prefer. One thing is certain, this is a statistic that is more than curious and interesting for all who enjoy sports betting.
April 13th, 2014 
While browsing in one of my favorite betting forums on the internet I came across a very interesting statistics that may be useful to those who bet in-play on football matches.
The statistics cover matches in which the away team was able to score a goal in the first five minutes and thus to take an early lead in the match. These statistics cover the five major championships Premier League in England, Serie A in Italy, Primera Division in Spain, Ligue 1 in France and Bundesliga in Germany.
What does this betting data show?
An interesting fact is that in Germany the chances of the home team to do a complete reversal are higher than everywhere – about 25%. It allows in-play betting, although it is unlikely that easily to get odds for a home win at 4 so early in the match. However, if you decide to wait until halftime to take better odds, then the chances for the home team to recover will be highly reduced.
However, after an early goal for the visitors the most likely outcome of the match in the Bundesliga is 1:1. Such result occurs around 22% of matches, which is more than an excellent result. However, it is also unlikely to get odds of 4.5 for a draw, which to give you the option to make a bet. On the other hand, a bet on the exact score of the match is more than good.
The next most likely outcome after an early goal for the visitors in the Bundesliga is 1:2, which occurs in 12% of the matches, followed by 3:2, which again occurs in 12% of the matches.
The betting statistics are quite interesting in the matches of the Premier League. They show that the most likely outcome in such matches is 2-1 for the hosts. Moreover, according to the statistics the majority of goals scored by the hosts are in the second half and even after the 60th minute. This will ensure you excellent odds at the end of the match for the home team to win.
However, you should note that the next four most likely results in the matches of the Premier League after an early goal scored by the guests are for an away win.
More data to follow after a few days.
March 19th, 2014 
Chelsea’s domineering display against Galatasaray on Tuesday night proved Jose Mourinho’s men are the real deal in the UEFA Champions League.
Relentless pressure in midfield, clever counter-attacks and clinical finishing all played out in front of a yet another stingy defensive display.
The West London club are likely to be the Premier League’s only representatives in the last eight of the UCL, (barring a valiant fightback from Manchester United against Olympiakos on Wednesday) so they’ll be flying the St. George’s flag in Europe for the rest of the season.
But how long will that be for? Here are three reasons why Chelsea can go all the way and lift the ‘big eared’ trophy in Lisbon on May 24.
Solid defense
Chelsea have only conceded four goals in eight UCL matches this season, and have kept five clean sheets. With John Terry and Gary Cahill marshaling central defense, Petr Cech racking up 100 appearances in the UCL, plus Cesar Azpilicueta and Branislav Ivanovic steady and dependable at full back, many of Europe’s best offensive sides will struggle to break down the ‘Blue curtain’. We all know Mourinho loves a 1-0 win and to rub it in the faces of his opposition, there will be plenty of that as Terry and co. throw themselves in front of crosses and shots until their little hearts are content. Add in the fact that Chelsea have now conceded they won’t be an expansive, glitzy side just yet, and they will play to their strengths to beat Europe’s elite. Solid defense, with clinical finishing, that should be the plan.
Experienced players leading the way
In any walk of life, experience goes a long way. As we mentioned, Cech has 100 UCL appearances to his name, Frank Lampard has 73, then John Terry has 99 and the list goes on and on. Against Galatasaray Samuel Eto’o scored his 30th Champions League goal, just the 14th player to reach that milestone, and all of this adds up to giving Chelsea the edge when it really matters.
Of course having too much experience (a.k.a. oldsters who are struggling to get around the pitch) won’t work, but the Blues have a great mix of youngsters who are contributing and learning from their veteran leaders. Eden Hazard, Oscar and Willian augment the experienced core around them, as most of these players have “been there, done that” in the UCL and lifted the trophy before. That counts for an awful lot in the last eight and beyond.
The ‘Mou factor’
Love him, hate him… we all know Chelsea’s manager Jose Mourinho is a born winner. The man who has already won two Champions League titles in two different countries (with FC Porto and Inter Milan) is eager to add a third to his collection, with many believing he’d prefer a UCL crown over the PL title. Regardless, Mourinho will set up his team to annoy opponents and pounce on the counter to devastating effect. This is the environment where the ‘Special One’ earns his corn and sets himself above the rest. With a large squad challenging for two titles, he will have to be a master of alternating lineups and using certain players only in Europe or the PL exclusively. Rallying calls aren’t really his thing anymore, so it would seem, and with a strong core of leaders Mourinho doesn’t have to give vast monologues of tactical instructions in the locker room to get his point across.
Instead it’s the finer details, as Jose knows better than anyone, which push you over the finishing line to win a UCL crown. Chelsea have a long way to go until a second UCL title arrives in West London, but with Jose on board, I like their odds of getting through two more rounds and at least reaching the final in Lisbon. In Jose’s homeland of Portugal, he may become the first manager in history to win the UEFA Champions League with three different teams from three different countries. That’s the ‘Mou factor’.
February 14th, 2014 I am sure you would have heard comments like, ‘if you don’t have good money management skills then you simply won’t win’; or how about ‘money management is much more important than the selection strategy used’; or even ‘you won’t win if you don’t have good money management skills’.There will always be a group of punters who is always bleating about the virtues of money management. These punters believe that this mystical term ‘money management’ is a savior, which will turn their otherwise unprofitable approach magically into a highly profitable one, simply by changing the way they stake. I can tell you that there is as much chance of this happening as there is of Jess going on a date with Nicole Kidman.
Now I realise, that I might be stepping on your toes a little here, especially if you too have been brainwashed by the folks who worship these two words. As with anything else in this article, it is just an opinion and you are free of course to ignore completely what I have to say.I admit that I probably should not really feel as strongly as I do, but I tell you, I get some really horrible thoughts entering my mind whenever those two words are spoken.
Okay, what is all the fuss about? Just what is the difference between bankroll management and money management?
Money management (in my opinion) is when a punter is trying to make money from any form of gambling, purely by using some sort of staking approach. As we all know, it doesn’t matter which game we choose (horse racing, craps, sports betting, roulette etc), if we bet ‘blindly’, make no mistake about it, we lose. That is to say, that if we bet on number 7 on a roulette wheel for long enough, eventually the casino will end up with our money. We might get lucky in the short-term however, but reality will set in over a half reasonable time period.
However, if you think you can beat one of these games by purely changing the amount that you stake per race/bet/spin/hand etc, then you are still playing a losing game. That is, you are trying to use money management to beat the game. Playing a poor game, but trying to win simply through staking.
We know that if we exercise our skills and knowledge, then we can turn the majority of gambling activities into profitable exercises. (Some games are easier to beat than others).
Bankroll management, on the other hand, is the decision how to stake your selections ONCE you have found a profitable approach. It is when you are winning, that you need to think about how to stake your money, NOT before you have shown that you can turn a profit, using a specific approach by betting level stakes, which is simply, the same amount every bet.
Essentially, that is the difference. Punters who try to beat a game solely through staking are using money management. It may be great fun, don’t get me wrong, but not so good for the wallet.
Now it would be ignorant and arrogant of me not to mention the fact, that this whole idea of staking is quiet contentious. There a millions upon millions of punters who will swear (maybe even the majority of punters) that you can turn a losing approach into a profitable one through ‘clever money management’. If that is the case, then please, don’t let me stop you. The best thing that any punter can do is continue with whatever is successful for them. Very simply, if your staking approach works for you, then by all means, go ahead and continue.
I, on the other hand, prefer to use approaches, which actually may be proven to work, and that is where we get into bankroll management. How to make the most of a profitable approach is what bankroll management is all about, NOT how to find a winning approach through staking. If you don’t have a profitable approach, then there is NO way that you can find a profitable approach through simply staking your selections differently. This is not an idea or a hunch – this is a decade old mathematically proven fact!
Whether punters want to listen and discover what is proven to work, or if they want to throw their heads in the sand, and claim that this is all ‘academic wank’ and that it does not work (as a number of punters have kindly told me), is of course up to them.
In saying this, the question has to be asked, that if it were possible to beat an otherwise unbeatable game simply through staking, it would have to be one of the greatest mysteries in the world as to how casinos would be able to exist. Casino games, such as, roulette have much lower house margins, than say, the horse races, sports betting or keno. (For example, 2.7% house advantage on roulette, against 15% – 25% on horse racing, or 5% – 10% on sports betting.) Therefore, if it were possible, one would think that the casinos would be the first to be cleaned out.
Wouldn’t you?However, I say to you, when ones livelihood depends on these types of decisions, I feel much more confident in relying on approaches, which may be mathematically proven to be successful, even if it is all ‘academic rubbish’, rather than to rely on hunches and hot streaks. In my experience, hunches and hot streaks do not put the food on the table.
Now in a tournament sense, much of the above does not apply. This is because an entrant is playing directly against another opponent, which makes this the exception to the above rule. This is where it may make sense to use some sort of staking approach which will vary, depending on the opponent’s position. In a tournament, such as a casino roulette or blackjack tournament, simply playing your game in a steady and conservative manner will many more times than not, result in you maintaining, or possibly increasing, your bankroll to some extent. However, to win such tournaments, it is essential to use a somewhat more aggressive approach to beat the other players.
Therefore, in closing, if you are a money management fan and believe that the facts are just ‘academic wank’, and believe that games such as roulette can be beaten purely through staking, then you have one thing over those using the more mathematical approaches – you will always be welcome with open arms at any gambling establishment.
February 10th, 2014 The match from the 26th round of the Premier League between Aston Villa and Cardiff will be played on Tuesday at 20.45 local time. Cardiff is on the second to last place in the current standings with 21 points. Aston Villa has six points more for now, which means that an eventual victory for the away team tonight will be decisive for their salvation among the best teams in England.
The appointment of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as a manager of Cardiff didn’t gave the major boost the Welsh needed to come off from the bottom. The Norwegian, who recorded great results as a manager of Molde recorded five losses in his first six matches in the team.
The style of the team was not improved too as Cardiff continued to perform poorly and didn’t create enough goal attempts. In the last six Premier League matches the players from Cardiff have scored only four goals, which is not good at all.
Aston Villa is with two straight losses and six in the last ten matches they have played in the Premier League. This is a result that is more than unconvincing for the team, although Villa leads the group of teams that are fighting to escape relegation. Nevertheless, Aston Villa has players in the squad like Christian Benteke and Gabriel Agbonlahor that can decide a match against Cardiff with just one touch.
This is exactly why it is not strange that the big bookmakers offer odds for a match between equal teams. Bet365 favors the hosts as they offer odds for their victory of 2.5 versus 3 for an away win. The bookie’s proposal for a draw is 3.4.
Much lower coefficient for a draw is proposed by William Hill as it is only 3.1. The same rate is the eventual victory for Aston Villa, but the home team’s chances in this match are estimated at 2.4.
bet-at-home offers rates as follows 2.3, 3.3 and 3 for a home win, a draw and a victory for the visitors in the match.
I personally don’t see how Aston Villa will lose this match, although honestly I don’t see how they will win it. That’s why I would bet the home not to win. The highest odds for this bet comes with the bookmakers 12BET, 5Dimes and Dafabet and is 1.63.
January 18th, 2014 Sports Betting – Introduction to Money Management
Probably the least understood aspect of successful sports betting is related to money management. Money management is just as important as handicapping when it comes to having a profitable season. Sheer odds will dictate that everybody will pick winning teams on occasion, but not everybody knows how to manage their money in a manner that will maximize profits or minimize losses.
The first ingredient to proper money management is to establish a fund strictly for wagering. More commonly referred to a bankroll, this fund should be money that you can afford to lose, and should not consist of the rent payment or your kid’s college tuition. If you can’t afford to lose, you have no business betting. It’s as simple as that. Wait until your financial situation improves to the point where you can afford to lose a bit of cash and jump in at that point. The NFL, Major League Baseball, or the NBA aren’t going anywhere and will still be around for you to wager on, whether if it’s next week or next year.
Once your bankroll is firmly established, you’re ready to begin planning your assault on the bookmaker and your first step is determining the amount of your wagers. The method favored by most sophisticated gamblers involves wagering a percentage of your bankroll on each bet. This method is more commonly known as the Kelly Criterion and nearly all successful money management plans will use some type of variation of Mr. Kelly’s work.
Kelly Criterion
In 1956, the Kelly Criterion was developed by Edward L. Kelly, a physicist with AT&T Bell Laboratories. Kelly’s original concept was developed for betting on thoroughbred horse racing, but is applicable to all types of gambling, including the stock market and blackjack.
Kelly’s method is a mathematical formula that gives the percentage of bankroll to be wagered on an event to maximize profits, based on the odds and the probability of winning the bet. The formula looks more complex than it actually is and can be stated in three simple steps.
1. Multiply the odds of the event by the probability of winning.
2. Subtract the probability of losing from the number obtained in the first step.
3. Take the number obtained in the second step and divide by the odds.
For demonstrative purposes, let’s assume we are a football bettor who has a 56% winning percentage over time and is comfortable using that figure as the expected winning probability for future bets.
1. The first step is to take our 56% and multiply it by 11/10, the odds we give on a football bet, so we get .56 * .91 = .509.
2. Since our odds of winning are 56%, our odds of losing must be 44% or .440, which subtracted from .509 will give us a figure of .069.
3. Take .069 and divide by .91 and you will get a figure of .075 or 7.5%, which we would round up to 8%, therefore 8% would be the recommended percentage of your bankroll to wager on each game.
The Kelly Criterion also can be used when your odds of winning are less than 50%, but the odds are in your favor so that over the long run such a situation should yield a profit. For example, take a baseball team that we estimate has a 40 percent chance of winning a game, but sees the favorite installed as -180 (risking $180 to win a $100) and the underdog listed as +165 (risking $100 to win $165).
1. The first step is to take estimated odds of winning (40%) and multiply by the given odds of +165, so our first set of numbers shows .40 * 1.65 = .660.
2. Next, we take our probability of losing, which we have estimated to be 60% or .600 and subtract that from .660 and get .060.
3. The final step is to take our number from the second step (.060) and multiply by the odds on the game (of 1.65) and we get .060 * 1.65 = .099, which we would round up to .10 or 10%. Therefore, the suggested betting size in this situation would be 10% our bankroll.
For straight 11/10 wagers, the following table shows the recommended bet size per the Kelly Criterion. The figures in the left column are what we guess our winning percentages will be, while the number to the right is the Kelly Criterion’s recommended percentage of our bankroll to wager on the event.
If we estimate our winning percentage in football betting is going to be 54%, the Kelly Criterion would have us wager 3.40% of our bankroll on every play. If we believe we will hit 57% winners, the Kelly Criterion has us betting 9.70% of our bankroll on each play.
December 29th, 2013 There are two essential characteristics to being a successful long term sports bettor. The first is the ability to recognise value in a given market, and the second is how to manage your investment bankroll. In other words, how to optimise that value and manage risk.
Many bettors have the ability to recognise value in a particular sports betting market, whether that be by ‘gut’ and ‘feel’ or some statistical model to asses the probability of an outcome. But once value has been identified, how much do you invest in that wager to make the most of that value while protecting your bankroll?
There are many and varied investment strategies that can and have been applied to sports betting, a number borrowed from the world of finance. Any Google search however will surely confuse the uninitiated, as a carnival of mutant theories and strategies parade down the page. Regardless, by the end of this article it’s hoped even the most inexperienced of sports bettors will be familiar with the most popular money management strategies, will have a better understanding of the fundamentals behind money management and how to increase their chances of joining the small percentage of sports gamblers who make a long-term profit.
A Slice Of The Pie
One strategy is to maintain a constant percentage of your bankroll with each bet. It’s assumed that this method will protect any bettor from losing their entire bankroll as the amount to be bet diminishes as your bankroll diminishes. It’s a little like Zeno’s paradox. The arrow will never reach its target as it halves the distance at each interval. However, while unlikely, even betting 5% of a €1000 bankroll will leave you with a bankroll of less than €200 after 33 consecutive losses.
But more to the point, it assumes equal value for each bet and additionally it expects equal odds being offered for each bet. Let’s say that bookmaker bet365 are offering odds for a team to win of 1.70. Would you really want to bet the same percentage on a 1.70 favourite as a 3.50 outsider without any recognition of their respective value? The answer should clearly be no. Further, even if you only bet on 1.70 favourites, is the probability of each 1.70 favourite winning identical in each instance? In other words, does each 1.70 favourite offer the same value? It could be the case, but its unlikely.
The Slice of the Pie strategy while offering a manner of managing your bankroll, fails to recognise value as a key part of a successful management strategy. Essentially, in the end, it will only manage the way you lose your money.
Inside out
This method is similar to the Slice of the Pie, except that it takes the further step of taking into account the odds being offered for a particular bet. So for example, you bet 5% of a €1000 bankroll as a standard unit, €50. If betting on 2.00 odds, the unit remains €50, but when betting on say a 11.00 outsider, that unit becomes €5. It can be calculated like this:
eg. (€1000 * 0.05) / (11 – 1) = €5
This works fine when betting on outsiders but what if we wish to bet on short priced favourites? If betting 5% of any bankroll, betting on a 1.05 favourite would mean betting your entire bankroll. Now I would never recommend betting on anything remotely close to a 1.05 favourite let alone your entire bankroll, (unless the odds were on the sun rising tomorrow, but even then I would probably spend a nervous night watching the darkened night sky). Regardless, the limitations of the Inside Out strategy should be clear as it still fails take into account the recognised value of a particular betting proposition.
K is for Kelly
While it still has its critics, the Kelly Method has stood the test of time since its creation in the mid 1950′s. Essentially this method takes into account both the probability of a given team or player winning and the value of the odds offered in relation to that probability – also known as ‘the overlay’. This means that it suggests you bet more depending upon how great the overlay is, but it also means you have to assess the probability of a given outcome with consistency.
The overlay is calculated simply as:
Overlay = (probability * odds) – 1
There have been many amendments to the Kelly method over the years, and although the fundamentals remain the same, each edition of the method offers its own insights.
The Full Kelly – While a proven method, the Full Kelly can make a wild ride of your betting experience and can suggest risky amounts be bet. It can easily recommend a bet of even 50% of your bankroll, which can reduce your bankroll to merely nothing in a short time. On the other hand, a winning streak can send your banroll into orbit
It is calculated as:
Percentage of bankroll to bet = Overlay / (Odds – 1)
e.g With an overlay of 0.20 and odds of 2.40 and a bankroll of €1000, the Full Kelly would recommend a bet of €143, or 14.3% of the bankroll.
The Fractional Kelly – This is a simple and conservative amendment to the Full Kelly method whereby the bettor only bets a certain fraction of the recommended bet. It could be 50%, known as the Half Kelly, 25% the Quarter Kelly or any percentage you feel comfortable with. Further, while the intuition may be that this will reduce your winnings according to the percentage you choose, it can be shown that a fractional Kelly method can return better results long term than the Full Kelly method.
The Constant Kelly – The same as the Full Kelly method, but rather than recommending a percentage of a varying amount, it recommends a percentage of a constant. So for example, instead of suggesting 15% of a diminishing or improving bankroll, it recommends 15% of a constant amount.
Busy Busy Busy
One of the drawbacks of any Kelly method is the issue of betting on multiple events at the one time. Let’s say there are 4 games you want to bet on, all being played at the same time. And what if the recommended percentage of bankroll for Bet A is 25%, Bet B is 35% and Bet C 35% and Bet D 40%? This amounts to betting 135% of your bankroll, which is obviously impossible.
One solution to this problem is to adjust the percentages proportionally so that 100% of the bankroll can be bet. i.e Bet A would proportionally become 19% and so on, as 25% is a proportional 19% of the 135% recommended. The issue with this is that firstly, you’re still betting 100% of your bankroll on 4 events which could all easily lose, and secondly, it means you’re not giving the same value to say a 25% bet on a busy day (where in this example it becomes 19%) as you would on a day when it might be your only bet.
One way to solve this is to use a fractional method so that no matter how many events you want to bet on in a single day, the total recommended is unlikely to eclipse 100% of your bank. This could well work, but as I know myself, it is easily possible to be betting on up to and over 20 events in a single day, meaning the 100% could still be eclipsed.
So What Do I Suggest?
Personally, I use a 10% fractional Kelly method. This allows me to protect my overall bankroll while I diversify and place many bets on sporting events being played daily.
So let’s say my bankroll is €5000, and I am betting on a team to win at odds of 2.60 offered by bookmaker Pinnacle Sports. Now let’s say I have assessed the probability of this team winning to be 50%, the recommended bet amount would be calculated as:
(bankroll * chosen fraction) * (overlay/(odds – 1))
i.e ($5000 * 10%) * (0.30 / 1.60) = €93.75
Try It Out For Yourself
While many bankroll management strategies are available to apply, I believe that the fractional Kelly method is best, as it takes into consideration the odds on offer, the probability assessed of a team or players winning and the resulting value identified in order to recommend a bet amount that will optimise that value without risking your bankroll and an early end to your career as a sports bettor.
December 27th, 2013 he Magpies will be looking to not only dent Arsenal’s title challenge on Tyneside on the weekend, but all get themselves in the hunt for a top four place. A win for the Magpies would see them move to within just three points of leader’s Arsenal. The Gunners took their first win in four on Boxing Day but this is going to be another big test of their mettle.
The Magpies are in a pretty good stride after posting a comfortable 5-1 win over Stoke at St James Park on Boxing Day. There has been a return of eight goals in their last two games now from the Magpies and both Loic Remy and Yohan Cabaye have two in their last two. The latter has scored in three of his last four and is worth a look in the Anytime Goalscorer market at 4/1. Remy is a lot closer to the top of the market at a price of 2/1 for the Magpies. So with seven wins in their last nine matches now, Alan Pardew’s men are not going to fear this one. In that run the have beaten Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United, so Arsenal shouldn’t faze them really. The Magpies have been good at home this season, posting five wins, three draws and just the one defeat. They may have been going along quietly for some, but they have scored at a rate of almost two per game at home this term.
Only in one of their last seven home matches in the Premier League have Newcastle failed to put at least two goals on the board. That should present a pretty big challenge to Arsenal. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six at St James Park now. There is certainly enough in Newcastle’s form at the moment to suggest that they are capable of taking all three points here. It would be a turnaround in form, as they haven’t scored in their last two home games against the Gunners, and haven’t taken a win against Arsenal in the last five attempts. Arsene Wenger’s men snapped a three match winless streak in the top flight with a comeback 3-1 win over West Ham at Upton Park on Boxing Day. The Gunners have been looking a bit tired and leggy through December and really haven’t risen up to the challenge of some tougher matches. The West Ham game had became so important for Arsene Wenger that he only made one chance from the previous 0-0 draw against Chelsea instead of rotating his squad.
Arsenal have been decent on the road this term, winning six, drawing one and losing two. Those two defeats have come in their last four away games though (at Man City and Man United). They may need to get Olivier Giroud firing again, as the Frenchman hasn’t netted since November 23rd in the Premier League, a six match barren streak. Arsenal have averaged two goals per game against over their last four matches, so you can see goals coming in this one and Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 8/11 with Stan James. The Gunners still managed to hold on to top spot after Boxing Day, but the pressure is increasing all of the time. Do they have the legs to sustain themselves? There will be big questions asked of them of them on Sunday. They are unbeaten in their last seven visits to St James Park in all competitions though. Good enough for a point perhaps? Both Teams To Score offers some value at price of 4/6 it is isn’t a bad option at all in a game which really could go either way.
Prediction
There does look to be some straight forward betting options in this one and some may be surprised that Newcastle go as underdogs in this one. The good news in that, is that there is brilliant 5/6 value at Stan James in a Newcastle-Draw Double Chance bet.