While browsing in one of my favorite betting forums on the internet I came across a very interesting statistics that may be useful to those who bet in-play on football matches.
The statistics cover matches in which the away team was able to score a goal in the first five minutes and thus to take an early lead in the match. These statistics cover the five major championships Premier League in England, Serie A in Italy, Primera Division in Spain, Ligue 1 in France and Bundesliga in Germany.
What does this betting data show?
An interesting fact is that in Germany the chances of the home team to do a complete reversal are higher than everywhere – about 25%. It allows in-play betting, although it is unlikely that easily to get odds for a home win at 4 so early in the match. However, if you decide to wait until halftime to take better odds, then the chances for the home team to recover will be highly reduced.
However, after an early goal for the visitors the most likely outcome of the match in the Bundesliga is 1:1. Such result occurs around 22% of matches, which is more than an excellent result. However, it is also unlikely to get odds of 4.5 for a draw, which to give you the option to make a bet. On the other hand, a bet on the exact score of the match is more than good.
The next most likely outcome after an early goal for the visitors in the Bundesliga is 1:2, which occurs in 12% of the matches, followed by 3:2, which again occurs in 12% of the matches.
The betting statistics are quite interesting in the matches of the Premier League. They show that the most likely outcome in such matches is 2-1 for the hosts. Moreover, according to the statistics the majority of goals scored by the hosts are in the second half and even after the 60th minute. This will ensure you excellent odds at the end of the match for the home team to win.
However, you should note that the next four most likely results in the matches of the Premier League after an early goal scored by the guests are for an away win.
More data to follow after a few days.